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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives will submit the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a complete package of agreements could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is near agreeing to the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators continues to be the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president said following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “an open economic area.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he added.